Which of the following is a possible indicator of economic downturn?

The choice indicating that the rate spread between high and low grade bonds increases is a significant indicator of an economic downturn. When investors become concerned about the economic outlook, they often seek safer investments, such as high-grade bonds, leading to an increase in demand for these bonds and a decrease in their yields. Conversely, the yields on low-grade bonds, which are seen as riskier, may not fall as much or could rise, resulting in a wider spread between the yields of the two types of bonds.

This widening of the yield spread reflects increased risk aversion in the market; investors demand a higher return for holding riskier assets during uncertain economic times. Thus, this behavior in the bond market can be a strong signal of potential economic downturns, as it suggests that confidence in economic stability is waning.

In contrast, the other options do not align as closely with indicators of an economic downturn. For example, a professor getting laid off could be an isolated incident and not indicative of broader economic trends. An upward-sloping yield curve typically suggests economic growth, not a downturn, as it indicates investor confidence and expectations of rising interest rates in the future. Lastly, government cutbacks on funding might occur in various contexts and could reflect budgetary adjustments rather